Davis

The American Presidency

Third Hour Exam

As with the last two exams, write your answers to the questions below in the spaces provided. If extra space is required, use the back of the page and mark the continuation clearly with the question number. Please read the questions carefully. Partial credit will be given for partial answers so write what you know.

1. The next president may have the opportunity to appoint two or three Supreme Court Justices. What are the usual sources of Supreme Court Justices? Where is the President likely to hunt for the next justice? (3pt) Judges on the Circuit Courts of Appeal are certainly considered, as are State Supreme Court Judges, and occasionally former State Governors or other officials. Well know legal scholars may also be considered. (Need to mention at least three for full credit.)

 

 

2. Which Senate Committee reviews the credentials of judicial nominees, may hold


hearings, and sends (or doesn’t) the nomination to the floor of the Senate

for a vote? (1pt) Senate Judiciary Committee

3. In the context of judicial appointments what is the significance of senatorial courtesy? (2pt) A Senator from the home state of a judicial nominee may put a hold on a nominee and prevent his nomination from coming to the floor, thus effectively blocking the appointment.

4. Although the President formally appoints all federal judges, he normally delegates responsibility for identifying judges for the district and circuit courts. What cabinet member commonly gets that responsibility? (1pt)The U.S. Attorney General

this official’s role in connection with the Supreme Court? (4pt) The Solicitor General decides what federal cases will be appealed to the Supreme Court. In addition, the Solicitor General decides whether the government will file an amicus curiae brief supporting or opposing appeal by third parties. The Solicitor General decides the position the government will take, and oversees the writing of the brief that is submitted to the court.

6. What resources may the next president use in trying to ensure a favorable vote in the


Senate for his Supreme Court nominees? (6pt) Once he has nominated a justice a president may lobby both members of his party, and the opposing party, in the Senate in order to put the best possible face on the nomination. The President and his advisor may encourage supportive interest groups to get actively involved and to testify at the nomination hearing. The President may go public, using both the press and remarks to selected groups to help build the case for his nominee. (Party leadership, interest groups, and going public are three crucial points. Need three points (2 pts each) for full credit.)

7. As this is written there is still no official president elect, but the two hopefuls are


engaged in planning their transitions. What has President Clinton recently done

to get his administration’s part in the transition underway? (2pt) The end of November (November 27 to be unnecessarily exact) the President issued an executive order appointing a Transition Coordinating Council and directing it to coordinate assistance to the President elect and to make every reasonable effort to facilitate the transtition. (To get full credit must at least have mentioned the appointment of the Council. This was White House e mail forwarded to the whole class. Partial credit if general mention of briefing getting underway.)

8. Neither President Carter nor President Clinton had particularly successful


transitions. Why don’t Presidents always come in ready and well prepared? What can get in the way, or go wrong? (6pt) There are several possible reasons. The two most important are probably overload and overconfidence. President candidates typically devote every available hour of a campaign to winning, and if they are successful their confidence soars. Hubris captures their state of mind and they underestimate the complexity of forming a government and the time it will take to do so while overestimating their ability and readiness. Further, former governors may have a lot of to learn about the national government (though they may not realize it) and very little time to learn it. If there are strained communications between the incoming and outgoing administration and the new comers don’t ask the right questions, the problems are simply magnified.

9. Assume (this is still hypothetical) that Governor Bush becomes President Bush.


How would you advise him to deal with the Congress? (5pt) First, he must try to tone down the rhetoric of some of the more partisan outspoken Republicans (Tom DeLay is an example) though that will not be easy. Then he will have to reach out to the Democrats—including them in consultation and communication and sending up nominations for his administration that they can approve. And he must put aside much of the campaign platform and focus on policy proposals that Democrats will find very hard if not impossible to reject. Bush cannot forget that the Senate will be evenly divided and the House almost so. He must act as though he is running a coalition government, or his government is unlikely to run at all.
 
 

10. Party support is the chief ingredient in presidential capital, but hardly the only one.


What are some other elements in a president’s supply of external political capital?(3pt) Public approval (that is, favorable public opinion), electoral margin, and overall reputation are all elements of political capital in addition to party support.
 
 

11. Indicate, with examples where appropriate, how variations in time, information,


expertise, and energy may influence a president’s policy success. (5pt) The time clock starts ticking on January 20, maybe even the day of the election. Every day there is less time to act. The first year is a transition year and though this is conventionally the honey moon year, if the staff is incomplete and the new team unprepared or uninformed, not much may happen. The last year is another election year, and in between there are the mid term elections. In the second term, the present becomes an increasingly lame duck. The result is a much shorter time in which to be successful than be apparent at first glance. Information is also an issue. Accurate timely information is scarce and many decisions are made with incomplete information. More importantly, lack of information may encourage delay, and when information becomes adequate, the time may be too short for success. And apart of information different presidents arrive with different areas and amounts of expertise. Former governors may not know the national policy making system, have little understanding of the Congress. Former Senators may lack expertise in administration. Lacking these sorts of skills may yield early failure, hurt a reputation, and time to recover may be short. Policy and political processes drain energy. As Light suggests compare the photographs of Presidents taken on inauguration day, and 4 or 8 years later. Exhaustion can be an obstacle to policy success. Conclusion, the energetic president who arrives with the appropriate skill mix and sufficient information to argue persuasively for his priorities may have the best chance of success relatively early in his first term, perhaps having his best shot in the second year.
 
 

12. List four sources of ideas that the White House may draw on for governing and policy


development. (4pt) Ideas may come from Think tanks (Heritage, Brookings, Urban Institute, etc) university faculty and institutes, interest groups, the media, federal agencies, even state governments. Parties, Members of Congress, and the Media may also yield ideas.

13. It is entirely possible that the next president, seeing only difficulty with the Congress


may emphasize executive action. What sorts of actions might an "administrative president" take? (3pt) The administrative president could be expected to issue more executive orders, conclude executive agreements with foreign governments, relay more on the regulatory process than on legislation, to make "acting" appointments in the administration rather than appointments requiring Senate approval.

14. One of the clearest differences in position between Governor Bush and Vice President


Gore is in how each would take advantage of the apparent future surplus in the budget. What’s the difference? What major position has Bush advocated, that Gore has been critical of? (2pt) Bush has advocated a major across the board tax cut of some 1.3 trillion dollars.

15. Bush and Gore have also differed in how they would "fix" Social Security? What


has Governor Bush proposed? (2pt) Gov Bush has proposed partial privatization, with 2 or 3 percent of the present social security tax being allowed to remain with the individual for retirement investment as the individual taxpayer thinks best.

16. Distinguish between the Council of Economic Advisors and the National Economic Council, both units in the Executive Office of the President. (4pt) The Council of Economic. The Council of Economic Advisors was created by the Employment Act of l946 and is composed of three professional economists appointed by the President with the consent of the Senate. A primary responsibility is to prepare the President’s Annual Economic Report. The staff is composed largely of academic economists on leave from their institutions and the CEA is largely a data collection and analysis body. For some years it has been on the edges of policy making. The National Economic Council, as its web site points, was created by an executive order issued by Pressident Clinton in January 1993, 5 days after Clinton was inaugurated. Its task to coordinate economic policy making, ensure that economic policy is consistent with the president’s goals, and monitor implementation. It is much more a part of Clinton’s inner circle.


Which one of these two Economic units is Gene Sperling associated with? (Sperling is Assistant to the President for Economic Policy.) (1pt) Sperling is Director of the National Economic Council

17. What is the single most important source of revenue to the U.S. Treasury? (2pt)


The individual income tax. (Full credit requires individual; there is also a corporate income tax—though it supplies much less revenue.)

And the single largest item in the federal budget? (2pt) Social Security

18. As the proportion of the population over 65 continues to grow, and life expectancy rises, Social Security will come under more and more pressure. Mention four options that a future president could consider in order to strength the financing of the program. (4pt) A future president could significantly increase the eligible age for full benefits; he could consider means testing; he could increase the social security tax; he could remove the earnings ceiling for the social security tax; he could make social security benefits fully taxable.
19. It is by now conventional wisdom that Bill Clinton did not have enough political capital when he first became president to enact his fairly ambitious agenda. In a few lines, provide your assessment of the political capital that either Bush or Gore will have when one of them takes the oath of office. (4pt) Neither Bush nor Gore will enter with much capital, though Bush may have somewhat more. Bush’s party will control, though barely, the House and (with the vote of the Vice President) the Senate. Since Bush lost the popular vote, he will surely come in under a bit of a cloud. There is no electoral margin to brag about, and if he wins the electoral college majority will be razor thin. He will have the support of conservatives, but has not done well with minorities. As for as internal resources go—already the transition has lost time. Bush Washington skills are probably no better than either Carter’s or Clinton’s were at first—he has the same gubernatorial experience and there are surely information gaps. Bush does not give the appearance of being energetic. In all, not well supplied with political capital.


But not much better off than Gore will also arrive on close to empty. If he wins, it will be on recounts and paper thin margins. And the Republicans in the Congress will be angry, in little mood to cooperate. Like Bush, he is behind on transition—but at least can make do with Democratic holdovers for a while. He surely has more understanding of Washington and is better informed than Bush, but does not have lots of friends on Capitol hill. Like Bush, Gore will hardly be in a position to claim a mandate. He will bring more energy and expertise to the fray, but whether he can in fact be successful is open to doubt.

20. Opportunities for making policy come and go throughout a presidential term.


On the lines below are the four years of a term. In a few words describe each year and the opportunities and obstacles that it provides for success. I’ve started the first year. Add anything you wish to that, and comment on the next three years. (6pt)

Year 1 Honeymoon May be very short this year, even non existent. Normally this is time when the new president is strongest, but it is also the time when he is least informed and may still be filling his administration. By the time he is ready to roll, the honey moon is over.

Year 2 The honey moon is over, but the administration should be in place. This starts the time when a new president may be most effective/productive. But it is also the year of mid term elections, and these may complicate the legislative process

Year 3 Commonly the President’s party loses seats in the Congress—which may make it harder to achieve administration goals during the last two years. It would be no surprise, given their current thin margins, for the Republicans to loose both the House and Senate in 2002.

Year 4 An election year—and the parties may prefer to have issues rather than completed bills. In any case, time and attention are diverted to campaigning, primaries, fund raising, conventions, and the like and governing can take a back seat.

21. Responsible for the economy, the President must be aware of both macroeconomic policy, and microeconomic policy. Distinguish between these two areas of economic policy. (4pt) Macroeconomic policy deals with fiscal policy (taxing and spending) and the management of the money supply—monetary policy. Microeconomic policy deals with the regulations of particular economic sectors and with anti trust policy


Which of these two areas of policy does the government’s anti trust law suit against Microsoft fit into (1pt) Microeconomic policy

22. In addition to the National Economic Council, mention three other organizations that are part of what Thomas and Pika call the economic sub presidency.(3pt)


The Treasury Department, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Federal Reserve Board and the Council of Economic Advisors (Any three for full credit.)

23. What two policy bodies in the Executive Office are analogous to the National Security Council? (4pt) The Domestic Policy Council and the National Economic Council.
24. Sometimes negotiation with another country results in a treaty; sometimes in an executive agreement. What is the difference?(2pt) A Treaty must be approved by a 2/3 vote in the Senate to take effect. Not so an Executive Agreement.

 

 

25. Who ultimately decides whether a document will be handled as a Treaty or an